New Warwick Theater May Attract More Movie Goers Than Average Cinemas

The new Warwick Theater is “not without risk,” but it is likely to draw about 53,000 ticket buyers a year because Marblehead is “a unique town,” said Harold Blank, a veteran of the movie business who is helping develop the new theater.

The Warwick Theatre Community Foundation is raising money and designing a new movie theater for the new retail and office building that Marblehead businessman and philanthropist Eijk van Otterloo is planning on Pleasant Street. The new 38,000-square-foot building is slated to replace the old theater building.

Blank, whose HLB Entertainment, operates movie theaters in Burlington, Vt., said theaters in the Boston area have always done better than the national average for movie theaters.

“In 2010, the per capita U.S. attendance is now 4.1, ” he said. That means every U.S. resident goes to slightly more than four movies per year. Ten years ago, that number was 5.2 movies per year, he said.

Noting that predicting movie ticket sales is “not a perfect science,” Blank said there are about 58,000 people who live withing three miles of the Warwick. “On a strict per capita analysis this is a potential of 237,800 movie admissions. Given the quality of the demographic we assume the potential is greater, but this aspect is subjective,” Blank wrote in his analysis for the potential sales for the Warwick.

The design of the new Warwick will have two modern screens, which will allow up to 100 movie goers to sit in luxury seats in each theater for first-run movies, streaming rock concerts and Broadway plays, according to foundation chairman Michael McCloskey, a local architect.

“I think the ticket sales will be a little better,” than the national average for several reasons, Blank said. Not only is the per capita income higher in Marblehead, but “it is a unique town in that it is at the end of the world,” he said.

Blank said driving to other movie theaters in Danvers and Revere is difficult. The Salem theater has never drawn well, he said.

The Warwick will also offer restaurant quality food for a dinner and a movie experience.

A big megaplex cinema such as Revere and Danvers has an attendance in the 14 to 17 percent range, Blank said. “That is good. I am aware of some mid-sized theatres that are in the 17-20 percent and some Imax theatres that approach 25 percent,” he wrote in his analysis.

Bringing the Warwick back is “not without risk,” he said. But he feels the various components the Warwick will offer will make it successful.

One challenge is that the rents in the new office and retail building will be high. “It will be a tough nut,” Blank said. “But I understand it. This is a high-profile building."